Artificial intelligence-assisted quantification of COVID-19 pneumonia burden from computed tomography improves prediction of adverse outcomes over visual scoring systems.

OBJECTIVE: We aimed to evaluate the effectiveness of utilizing artificial intelligence (AI) to quantify the extent of pneumonia from chest CT scans, and to determine its ability to predict clinical deterioration or mortality in patients admitted to the hospital with COVID-19 in comparison to semi-quantitative visual scoring systems. METHODS: A deep-learning algorithm was utilized to quantify the pneumonia burden, while semi-quantitative pneumonia severity scores were estimated through visual means. The primary outcome was clinical deterioration, the composite end point including admission to the intensive care unit, need for invasive mechanical ventilation, or vasopressor therapy, as well as in-hospital death. RESULTS: The final population comprised 743 patients (mean age 65  ±â€¯ 17 years, 55% men), of whom 175 (23.5%) experienced clinical deterioration or death. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) for predicting the primary outcome was significantly higher for AI-assisted quantitative pneumonia burden (0.739, p = 0.021) compared with the visual lobar severity score (0.711, p < 0.001) and visual segmental severity score (0.722, p = 0.042). AI-assisted pneumonia assessment exhibited lower performance when applied for calculation of the lobar severity score (AUC of 0.723, p = 0.021). Time taken for AI-assisted quantification of pneumonia burden was lower (38 ± 10 s) compared to that of visual lobar (328 ± 54 s, p < 0.001) and segmental (698 ± 147 s, p < 0.001) severity scores. CONCLUSION: Utilizing AI-assisted quantification of pneumonia burden from chest CT scans offers a more accurate prediction of clinical deterioration in patients with COVID-19 compared to semi-quantitative severity scores, while requiring only a fraction of the analysis time. ADVANCES IN KNOWLEDGE: Quantitative pneumonia burden assessed using AI demonstrated higher performance for predicting clinical deterioration compared to current semi-quantitative scoring systems. Such an AI system has the potential to be applied for image-based triage of COVID-19 patients in clinical practice.

Relationship between impaired myocardial blood flow by positron emission tomography and low-attenuation plaque burden and pericoronary adipose tissue attenuation from coronary computed tomography: From the prospective PACIFIC trial.

BACKGROUND: Positron emission tomography (PET) is the clinical gold standard for quantifying myocardial blood flow (MBF). Pericoronary adipose tissue (PCAT) attenuation may detect vascular inflammation indirectly. We examined the relationship between MBF by PET and plaque burden and PCAT on coronary CT angiography (CCTA). METHODS: This post hoc analysis of the PACIFIC trial included 208 patients with suspected coronary artery disease (CAD) who underwent [15O]H2O PET and CCTA. Low-attenuation plaque (LAP, < 30HU), non-calcified plaque (NCP), and PCAT attenuation were measured by CCTA. RESULTS: In 582 vessels, 211 (36.3%) had impaired per-vessel hyperemic MBF (≤ 2.30 mL/min/g). In multivariable analysis, LAP burden was independently and consistently associated with impaired hyperemic MBF (P = 0.016); over NCP burden (P = 0.997). Addition of LAP burden improved predictive performance for impaired hyperemic MBF from a model with CAD severity and calcified plaque burden (P < 0.001). There was no correlation between PCAT attenuation and hyperemic MBF (r = - 0.11), and PCAT attenuation was not associated with impaired hyperemic MBF in univariable or multivariable analysis of all vessels (P > 0.1). CONCLUSION: In patients with stable CAD, LAP burden was independently associated with impaired hyperemic MBF and a stronger predictor of impaired hyperemic MBF than NCP burden. There was no association between PCAT attenuation and hyperemic MBF.

Sex differences in computed tomography angiography-derived coronary plaque burden in relation to invasive fractional flow reserve.

BACKGROUND: Distinct sex-related differences exist in coronary artery plaque burden and distribution. We aimed to explore sex differences in quantitative plaque burden by coronary CT angiography (CCTA) in relation to ischemia by invasive fractional flow reserve (FFR). METHODS: This post-hoc analysis of the PACIFIC trial included 581 vessels in 203 patients (mean age 58.1 â€‹± â€‹8.7 years, 63.5% male) who underwent CCTA and per-vessel invasive FFR. Quantitative assessment of total, calcified, non-calcified, and low-density non-calcified plaque burden were performed using semiautomated software. Significant ischemia was defined as invasive FFR ≤0.8. RESULTS: The per-vessel frequency of ischemia was higher in men than women (33.5% vs. 7.5%, p â€‹< â€‹0.001). Women had a smaller burden of all plaque subtypes (all p â€‹< â€‹0.01). There was no sex difference on total, calcified, or non-calcified plaque burdens in vessels with ischemia; only low-density non-calcified plaque burden was significantly lower in women (beta: -0.183, p â€‹= â€‹0.035). The burdens of all plaque subtypes were independently associated with ischemia in both men and women (For total plaque burden (5% increase): Men, OR: 1.15, 95%CI: 1.06-1.24, p â€‹= â€‹0.001; Women, OR: 1.96, 95%CI: 1.11-3.46, p â€‹= â€‹0.02). No significant interaction existed between sex and total plaque burden for predicting ischemia (interaction p â€‹= â€‹0.108). The addition of quantitative plaque burdens to stenosis severity and adverse plaque characteristics improved the discrimination of ischemia in both men and women. CONCLUSIONS: In symptomatic patients with suspected CAD, women have a lower CCTA-derived burden of all plaque subtypes compared to men. Quantitative plaque burden provides independent and incremental predictive value for ischemia, irrespective of sex.

Machine Learning From Quantitative Coronary Computed Tomography Angiography Predicts Fractional Flow Reserve-Defined Ischemia and Impaired Myocardial Blood Flow.

BACKGROUND: A pathophysiological interplay exists between plaque morphology and coronary physiology. Machine learning (ML) is increasingly being applied to coronary computed tomography angiography (CCTA) for cardiovascular risk stratification. We sought to assess the performance of a ML score integrating CCTA-based quantitative plaque features for predicting vessel-specific ischemia by invasive fractional flow reserve (FFR) and impaired myocardial blood flow (MBF) by positron emission tomography (PET). METHODS: This post-hoc analysis of the PACIFIC trial (Prospective Comparison of Cardiac Positron Emission Tomography/Computed Tomography [CT]' Single Photon Emission Computed Tomography/CT Perfusion Imaging and CT Coronary Angiography with Invasive Coronary Angiography) included 208 patients with suspected coronary artery disease who prospectively underwent CCTA' [15O]H2O PET, and invasive FFR. Plaque quantification from CCTA was performed using semiautomated software. An ML algorithm trained on the prospective NXT trial (484 vessels) was used to develop a ML score for the prediction of ischemia (FFR≤0.80), which was then evaluated in 581 vessels from the PACIFIC trial. Thereafter, the ML score was applied for predicting impaired hyperemic MBF (≤2.30 mL/min per g) from corresponding PET scans. The performance of the ML score was compared with CCTA reads and noninvasive FFR derived from CCTA (FFRCT). RESULTS: One hundred thirty-nine (23.9%) vessels had FFR-defined ischemia, and 195 (33.6%) vessels had impaired hyperemic MBF. For the prediction of FFR-defined ischemia, the ML score yielded an area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve of 0.92, which was significantly higher than that of visual stenosis grade (0.84; P<0.001) and comparable with that of FFRCT (0.93; P=0.34). Quantitative percent diameter stenosis and low-density noncalcified plaque volume had the greatest ML feature importance for predicting FFR-defined ischemia. When applied for impaired MBF prediction, the ML score exhibited an area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve of 0.80; significantly higher than visual stenosis grade (area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve 0.74; P=0.02) and comparable with FFRCT (area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve 0.77; P=0.16). CONCLUSIONS: An externally validated ML score integrating CCTA-based quantitative plaque features accurately predicts FFR-defined ischemia and impaired MBF by PET, performing superiorly to standard CCTA stenosis evaluation and comparably to FFRCT.

Rapid quantification of COVID-19 pneumonia burden from computed tomography with convolutional long short-term memory networks.

Purpose: Quantitative lung measures derived from computed tomography (CT) have been demonstrated to improve prognostication in coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) patients but are not part of clinical routine because the required manual segmentation of lung lesions is prohibitively time consuming. We aim to automatically segment ground-glass opacities and high opacities (comprising consolidation and pleural effusion). Approach: We propose a new fully automated deep-learning framework for fast multi-class segmentation of lung lesions in COVID-19 pneumonia from both contrast and non-contrast CT images using convolutional long short-term memory (ConvLSTM) networks. Utilizing the expert annotations, model training was performed using five-fold cross-validation to segment COVID-19 lesions. The performance of the method was evaluated on CT datasets from 197 patients with a positive reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction test result for SARS-CoV-2, 68 unseen test cases, and 695 independent controls. Results: Strong agreement between expert manual and automatic segmentation was obtained for lung lesions with a Dice score of 0.89 ± 0.07 ; excellent correlations of 0.93 and 0.98 for ground-glass opacity (GGO) and high opacity volumes, respectively, were obtained. In the external testing set of 68 patients, we observed a Dice score of 0.89 ± 0.06 as well as excellent correlations of 0.99 and 0.98 for GGO and high opacity volumes, respectively. Computations for a CT scan comprising 120 slices were performed under 3 s on a computer equipped with an NVIDIA TITAN RTX GPU. Diagnostically, the automated quantification of the lung burden % discriminate COVID-19 patients from controls with an area under the receiver operating curve of 0.96 (0.95-0.98). Conclusions: Our method allows for the rapid fully automated quantitative measurement of the pneumonia burden from CT, which can be used to rapidly assess the severity of COVID-19 pneumonia on chest CT.

Radiomics-Based Precision Phenotyping Identifies Unstable Coronary Plaques From Computed Tomography Angiography.

OBJECTIVES: The aim of this study was to precisely phenotype culprit and nonculprit lesions in myocardial infarction (MI) and lesions in stable coronary artery disease (CAD) using coronary computed tomography angiography (CTA)-based radiomic analysis. BACKGROUND: It remains debated whether any single coronary atherosclerotic plaque within the vulnerable patient exhibits unique morphology conferring an increased risk of clinical events. METHODS: A total of 60 patients with acute MI prospectively underwent coronary CTA before invasive angiography and were matched to 60 patients with stable CAD. For all coronary lesions, high-risk plaque (HRP) characteristics were qualitatively assessed, followed by semiautomated plaque quantification and extraction of 1,103 radiomic features. Machine learning models were built to examine the additive value of radiomic features for discriminating culprit lesions over and above HRP and plaque volumes. RESULTS: Culprit lesions had higher mean volumes of noncalcified plaque (NCP) and low-density noncalcified plaque (LDNCP) compared with the highest-grade stenosis nonculprits and highest-grade stenosis stable CAD lesions (NCP: 138.1 mm3 vs 110.7 mm3 vs 102.7 mm3; LDNCP: 14.2 mm3 vs 9.8 mm3 vs 8.4 mm3; both Ptrend < 0.01). In multivariable linear regression adjusted for NCP and LDNCP volumes, 14.9% (164 of 1,103) of radiomic features were associated with culprits and 9.7% (107 of 1,103) were associated with the highest-grade stenosis nonculprits (critical P < 0.0007) when compared with highest-grade stenosis stable CAD lesions as reference. Hierarchical clustering of significant radiomic features identified 9 unique data clusters (latent phenotypes): 5 contained radiomic features specific to culprits, 1 contained features specific to highest-grade stenosis nonculprits, and 3 contained features associated with either lesion type. Radiomic features provided incremental value for discriminating culprit lesions when added to a machine learning model containing HRP and plaque volumes (area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve 0.86 vs 0.76; P = 0.004). CONCLUSIONS: Culprit lesions and highest-grade stenosis nonculprit lesions in MI have distinct radiomic signatures compared with lesions in stable CAD. Within the vulnerable patient may exist individual vulnerable plaques identifiable by coronary CTA-based precision phenotyping.

Hepatosteatosis and Atherosclerotic Plaque at Coronary CT Angiography.

Purpose: To assess the association between nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) and quantitative atherosclerotic plaque at CT. Materials and Methods: In this post hoc analysis of the prospective Scottish Computed Tomography of the HEART trial (November 2010 to September 2014), hepatosteatosis and coronary artery calcium score were measured at noncontrast CT. Presence of stenoses, visually assessed high-risk plaque, and quantitative plaque burden were assessed at coronary CT angiography. Multivariable models were constructed to assess the impact of hepatosteatosis and cardiovascular risk factors on coronary artery disease. Results: Images from 1726 participants (mean age, 58 years ± 9 [SD]; 974 men) were included. Participants with hepatosteatosis (155 of 1726, 9%) had a higher body mass index, more hypertension and diabetes mellitus, and higher cardiovascular risk scores (P < .001 for all) compared with those without hepatosteatosis. They had increased coronary artery calcium scores (median, 43 Agatston units [AU] [interquartile range, 0-273] vs 19 AU [0-225], P = .046), more nonobstructive disease (48% vs 37%, P = .02), and higher low-attenuation plaque burden (5.11% [0-7.16] vs 4.07% [0-6.84], P = .04). However, these associations were not independent of cardiovascular risk factors. Over a median of 4.7 years, there was no evidence of a difference in myocardial infarction between those with and without hepatosteatosis (1.9% vs 2.4%, P = .92). Conclusion: Hepatosteatosis at CT was associated with an increased prevalence of coronary artery disease at CT, but this was not independent of the presence of cardiovascular risk factors.Keywords: CT, Cardiac, Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease, Coronary Artery Disease, Hepatosteatosis, Plaque QuantificationClinical trial registration no. NCT01149590 Supplemental material is available for this article. © RSNA, 2022See also commentary by Abohashem and Blankstein in this issue.

Pericoronary Adipose Tissue Attenuation, Low-Attenuation Plaque Burden, and 5-Year Risk of Myocardial Infarction.

BACKGROUND: Pericoronary adipose tissue (PCAT) attenuation and low-attenuation noncalcified plaque (LAP) burden can both predict outcomes. OBJECTIVES: This study sought to assess the relative and additive values of PCAT attenuation and LAP to predict future risk of myocardial infarction. METHODS: In a post hoc analysis of the multicenter SCOT-HEART (Scottish Computed Tomography of the Heart) trial, the authors investigated the relationships between the future risk of fatal or nonfatal myocardial infarction and PCAT attenuation measured from coronary computed tomography angiography (CTA) using multivariable Cox regression models including plaque burden, obstructive coronary disease, and cardiac risk score (incorporating age, sex, diabetes, smoking, hypertension, hyperlipidemia, and family history). RESULTS: In 1,697 evaluable participants (age: 58 ± 10 years), there were 37 myocardial infarctions after a median follow-up of 4.7 years. Mean PCAT was -76 ± 8 HU and median LAP burden was 4.20% (IQR: 0%-6.86%). PCAT attenuation of the right coronary artery (RCA) was predictive of myocardial infarction (HR: 1.55; P = 0.017, per 1 SD increment) with an optimum threshold of -70.5 HU (HR: 2.45; P = 0.01). In multivariable analysis, adding PCAT-RCA of ≥-70.5 HU to an LAP burden of >4% (the optimum threshold for future myocardial infarction; HR: 4.87; P < 0.0001) led to improved prediction of future myocardial infarction (HR: 11.7; P < 0.0001). LAP burden showed higher area under the curve compared to PCAT attenuation for the prediction of myocardial infarction (AUC = 0.71 [95% CI: 0.62-0.80] vs AUC = 0.64 [95% CI: 0.54-0.74]; P < 0.001), with increased area under the curve when the 2 metrics are combined (AUC = 0.75 [95% CI: 0.65-0.85]; P = 0.037). CONCLUSION: Coronary CTA-defined LAP burden and PCAT attenuation have marked and complementary predictive value for the risk of fatal or nonfatal myocardial infarction.

Deep learning-enabled coronary CT angiography for plaque and stenosis quantification and cardiac risk prediction: an international multicentre study.

BACKGROUND: Atherosclerotic plaque quantification from coronary CT angiography (CCTA) enables accurate assessment of coronary artery disease burden and prognosis. We sought to develop and validate a deep learning system for CCTA-derived measures of plaque volume and stenosis severity. METHODS: This international, multicentre study included nine cohorts of patients undergoing CCTA at 11 sites, who were assigned into training and test sets. Data were retrospectively collected on patients with a wide range of clinical presentations of coronary artery disease who underwent CCTA between Nov 18, 2010, and Jan 25, 2019. A novel deep learning convolutional neural network was trained to segment coronary plaque in 921 patients (5045 lesions). The deep learning network was then applied to an independent test set, which included an external validation cohort of 175 patients (1081 lesions) and 50 patients (84 lesions) assessed by intravascular ultrasound within 1 month of CCTA. We evaluated the prognostic value of deep learning-based plaque measurements for fatal or non-fatal myocardial infarction (our primary outcome) in 1611 patients from the prospective SCOT-HEART trial, assessed as dichotomous variables using multivariable Cox regression analysis, with adjustment for the ASSIGN clinical risk score. FINDINGS: In the overall test set, there was excellent or good agreement, respectively, between deep learning and expert reader measurements of total plaque volume (intraclass correlation coefficient [ICC] 0·964) and percent diameter stenosis (ICC 0·879; both p<0·0001). When compared with intravascular ultrasound, there was excellent agreement for deep learning total plaque volume (ICC 0·949) and minimal luminal area (ICC 0·904). The mean per-patient deep learning plaque analysis time was 5·65 s (SD 1·87) versus 25·66 min (6·79) taken by experts. Over a median follow-up of 4·7 years (IQR 4·0-5·7), myocardial infarction occurred in 41 (2·5%) of 1611 patients from the SCOT-HEART trial. A deep learning-based total plaque volume of 238·5 mm3 or higher was associated with an increased risk of myocardial infarction (hazard ratio [HR] 5·36, 95% CI 1·70-16·86; p=0·0042) after adjustment for the presence of deep learning-based obstructive stenosis (HR 2·49, 1·07-5·50; p=0·0089) and the ASSIGN clinical risk score (HR 1·01, 0·99-1·04; p=0·35). INTERPRETATION: Our novel, externally validated deep learning system provides rapid measurements of plaque volume and stenosis severity from CCTA that agree closely with expert readers and intravascular ultrasound, and could have prognostic value for future myocardial infarction. FUNDING: National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute and the Miriam & Sheldon G Adelson Medical Research Foundation.

Association of coronary artery calcium score with qualitatively and quantitatively assessed adverse plaque on coronary CT angiography in the SCOT-HEART trial.

AIMS: Coronary artery calcification is a marker of cardiovascular risk, but its association with qualitatively and quantitatively assessed plaque subtypes is unknown. METHODS AND RESULTS: In this post-hoc analysis, computed tomography (CT) images and 5-year clinical outcomes were assessed in SCOT-HEART trial participants. Agatston coronary artery calcium score (CACS) was measured on non-contrast CT and was stratified as zero (0 Agatston units, AU), minimal (1-9 AU), low (10-99 AU), moderate (100-399 AU), high (400-999 AU), and very high (≥1000 AU). Adverse plaques were investigated by qualitative (visual categorization of positive remodelling, low-attenuation plaque, spotty calcification, and napkin ring sign) and quantitative (calcified, non-calcified, low-attenuation, and total plaque burden; Autoplaque) assessments. Of 1769 patients, 36% had a zero, 9% minimal, 20% low, 17% moderate, 10% high, and 8% very high CACS. Amongst patients with a zero CACS, 14% had non-obstructive disease, 2% had obstructive disease, 2% had visually assessed adverse plaques, and 13% had low-attenuation plaque burden >4%. Non-calcified and low-attenuation plaque burden increased between patients with zero, minimal, and low CACS (P < 0.001), but there was no statistically significant difference between those with medium, high, and very high CACS. Myocardial infarction occurred in 41 patients, 10% of whom had zero CACS. CACS >1000 AU and low-attenuation plaque burden were the only predictors of myocardial infarction, independent of obstructive disease, and 10-year cardiovascular risk score. CONCLUSION: In patients with stable chest pain, zero CACS is associated with a good but not perfect prognosis, and CACS cannot rule out obstructive coronary artery disease, non-obstructive plaque, or adverse plaque phenotypes, including low-attenuation plaque.

Sex-Specific Computed Tomography Coronary Plaque Characterization and Risk of Myocardial Infarction.

OBJECTIVES: This study was designed to investigate whether coronary computed tomography angiography assessments of coronary plaque might explain differences in the prognosis of men and women presenting with chest pain. BACKGROUND: Important sex differences exist in coronary artery disease. Women presenting with chest pain have different risk factors, symptoms, prevalence of coronary artery disease and prognosis compared to men. METHODS: Within a multicenter randomized controlled trial, we explored sex differences in stenosis, adverse plaque characteristics (positive remodeling, low-attenuation plaque, spotty calcification, or napkin ring sign) and quantitative assessment of total, calcified, noncalcified and low-attenuation plaque burden. RESULTS: Of the 1,769 participants who underwent coronary computed tomography angiography, 772 (43%) were female. Women were more likely to have normal coronary arteries and less likely to have adverse plaque characteristics (p < 0.001 for all). They had lower total, calcified, noncalcified, and low-attenuation plaque burdens (p < 0.001 for all) and were less likely to have a low-attenuation plaque burden >4% (41% vs. 59%; p < 0.001). Over a median follow-up of 4.7 years, myocardial infarction (MI) occurred in 11 women (1.4%) and 30 men (3%). In those who had MI, women had similar total, noncalcified, and low-attenuation plaque burdens as men, but men had higher calcified plaque burden. Low-attenuation plaque burden predicted MI (hazard ratio: 1.60; 95% confidence interval: 1.10 to 2.34; p = 0.015), independent of calcium score, obstructive disease, cardiovascular risk score, and sex. CONCLUSIONS: Women presenting with stable chest pain have less atherosclerotic plaque of all subtypes compared to men and a lower risk of subsequent MI. However, quantitative low-attenuation plaque is as strong a predictor of subsequent MI in women as in men. (Scottish Computed Tomography of the HEART Trial [SCOT-HEART]; NCT01149590).

Rapid quantification of COVID-19 pneumonia burden from computed tomography with convolutional LSTM networks.

Quantitative lung measures derived from computed tomography (CT) have been demonstrated to improve prognostication in Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) patients, but are not part of the clinical routine since required manual segmentation of lung lesions is prohibitively time-consuming. We propose a new fully automated deep learning framework for quantification and differentiation between lung lesions in COVID-19 pneumonia from both contrast and non-contrast CT images using convolutional Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks. Utilizing the expert annotations, model training was performed using 5-fold cross-validation to segment ground-glass opacity and high opacity (including consolidation and pleural effusion). The performance of the method was evaluated on CT data sets from 197 patients with positive reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction test result for SARS-CoV-2. Strong agreement between expert manual and automatic segmentation was obtained for lung lesions with a Dice score coefficient of 0.876 ± 0.005; excellent correlations of 0.978 and 0.981 for ground-glass opacity and high opacity volumes. In the external validation set of 67 patients, there was dice score coefficient of 0.767 ± 0.009 as well as excellent correlations of 0.989 and 0.996 for ground-glass opacity and high opacity volumes. Computations for a CT scan comprising 120 slices were performed under 2 seconds on a personal computer equipped with NVIDIA Titan RTX graphics processing unit. Therefore, our deep learning-based method allows rapid fully-automated quantitative measurement of pneumonia burden from CT and may generate the big data with an accuracy similar to the expert readers.

Metabolic syndrome, fatty liver, and artificial intelligence-based epicardial adipose tissue measures predict long-term risk of cardiac events: a prospective study.

BACKGROUND: We sought to evaluate the association of metabolic syndrome (MetS) and computed tomography (CT)-derived cardiometabolic biomarkers (non-alcoholic fatty liver disease [NAFLD] and epicardial adipose tissue [EAT] measures) with long-term risk of major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) in asymptomatic individuals. METHODS: This was a post-hoc analysis of the prospective EISNER (Early-Identification of Subclinical Atherosclerosis by Noninvasive Imaging Research) study of participants who underwent baseline coronary artery calcium (CAC) scoring CT and 14-year follow-up for MACE (myocardial infarction, late revascularization, or cardiac death). EAT volume (cm3) and attenuation (Hounsfield units [HU]) were quantified from CT using fully automated deep learning software (< 30 s per case). NAFLD was defined as liver-to-spleen attenuation ratio < 1.0 and/or average liver attenuation < 40 HU. RESULTS: In the final population of 2068 participants (59% males, 56 ± 9 years), those with MetS (n = 280;13.5%) had a greater prevalence of NAFLD (26.0% vs. 9.9%), higher EAT volume (114.1 cm3 vs. 73.7 cm3), and lower EAT attenuation (-76.9 HU vs. -73.4 HU; all p < 0.001) compared to those without MetS. At 14 ± 3 years, MACE occurred in 223 (10.8%) participants. In multivariable Cox regression, MetS was associated with increased risk of MACE (HR 1.58 [95% CI 1.10-2.27], p = 0.01) independently of CAC score; however, not after adjustment for EAT measures (p = 0.27). In a separate Cox analysis, NAFLD predicted MACE (HR 1.78 [95% CI 1.21-2.61], p = 0.003) independently of MetS, CAC score, and EAT measures. Addition of EAT volume to current risk assessment tools resulted in significant net reclassification improvement for MACE (22% over ASCVD risk score; 17% over ASCVD risk score plus CAC score). CONCLUSIONS: MetS, NAFLD, and artificial intelligence-based EAT measures predict long-term MACE risk in asymptomatic individuals. Imaging biomarkers of cardiometabolic disease have the potential for integration into routine reporting of CAC scoring CT to enhance cardiovascular risk stratification. Trial registration NCT00927693.

Prediction of revascularization by coronary CT angiography using a machine learning ischemia risk score.

OBJECTIVES: The machine learning ischemia risk score (ML-IRS) is a machine learning-based algorithm designed to identify hemodynamically significant coronary disease using quantitative coronary computed tomography angiography (CCTA). The purpose of this study was to examine whether the ML-IRS can predict revascularization in patients referred for invasive coronary angiography (ICA) after CCTA. METHODS: This study was a post hoc analysis of a prospective dual-center registry of sequential patients undergoing CCTA followed by ICA within 3 months, referred from inpatient, outpatient, and emergency department settings (n = 352, age 63 ± 10 years, 68% male). The primary outcome was revascularization by either percutaneous coronary revascularization or coronary artery bypass grafting. Blinded readers performed semi-automated quantitative coronary plaque analysis. The ML-IRS was automatically computed. Relationships between clinical risk factors, coronary plaque features, and ML-IRS with revascularization were examined. RESULTS: The study cohort consisted of 352 subjects with 1056 analyzable vessels. The ML-IRS ranged between 0 and 81% with a median of 18.7% (6.4-34.8). Revascularization was performed in 26% of vessels. Vessels receiving revascularization had higher ML-IRS (33.6% (21.1-55.0) versus 13.0% (4.5-29.1), p < 0.0001), as well as higher contrast density difference, and total, non-calcified, calcified, and low-density plaque burden. ML-IRS, when added to a traditional risk model based on clinical data and stenosis to predict revascularization, resulted in increased area under the curve from 0.69 (95% CI: 0.65-0.72) to 0.78 (95% CI: 0.75-0.81) (p < 0.0001), with an overall continuous net reclassification improvement of 0.636 (95% CI: 0.503-0.769; p < 0.0001). CONCLUSIONS: ML-IRS from quantitative coronary CT angiography improved the prediction of future revascularization and can potentially identify patients likely to receive revascularization if referred to cardiac catheterization. KEY POINTS: • Machine learning ischemia risk from quantitative coronary CT angiography was significantly higher in patients who received revascularization versus those who did not receive revascularization. • The machine learning ischemia risk score was significantly higher in patients with invasive fractional flow ≤ 0.8 versus those with > 0.8. • The machine learning ischemia risk score improved the prediction of future revascularization significantly when added to a standard prediction model including stenosis.

Repeatability of quantitative pericoronary adipose tissue attenuation and coronary plaque burden from coronary CT angiography.

BACKGROUND: High pericoronary adipose tissue (PCAT) attenuation and non-calcified plaque burden (NCP) measured from coronary CT angiography (CTA) have been implicated in future cardiac events. We aimed to evaluate the interobserver and intraobserver repeatability of PCAT attenuation and NCP burden measurement from CTA, in a sub-study of the prospective SCOT-HEART trial. METHODS: Fifty consecutive CTAs from participants of the CT arm of the prospective SCOT-HEART trial were included. Two experienced observers independently measured PCAT attenuation and plaque characteristics throughout the whole coronary tree from CTA using semi-automatic quantitative software. RESULTS: We analyzed proximal segments in 157 vessels. Intraobserver mean differences in PCAT attenuation and NCP plaque burden were -0.05HU and 0.92% with limits of agreement (LOA) of ±1.54 and ± 5.97%. Intraobserver intraclass correlation coefficients (ICC) for PCAT attenuation and NCP burden were excellent (0.999 and 0.978). Interobserver mean differences in PCAT attenuation and NCP plaque burden were 0.13HU [LOA ±1.67HU] and -0.23% (LOA ±9.61%). Interobserver ICC values for PCAT attenuation and NCP burden were excellent (0.998 and 0.944). CONCLUSION: PCAT attenuation and NCP burden on CTA has high intraobserver and interobserver repeatability, suggesting they represent a repeatable and robust method of quantifying cardiovascular risk.

Epicardial adipose tissue is associated with extent of pneumonia and adverse outcomes in patients with COVID-19.

AIM: We sought to examine the association of epicardial adipose tissue (EAT) quantified on chest computed tomography (CT) with the extent of pneumonia and adverse outcomes in patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). METHODS: We performed a post-hoc analysis of a prospective international registry comprising 109 consecutive patients (age 64 ±â€¯16 years; 62% male) with laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 and noncontrast chest CT imaging. Using semi-automated software, we quantified the burden (%) of lung abnormalities associated with COVID-19 pneumonia. EAT volume (mL) and attenuation (Hounsfield units) were measured using deep learning software. The primary outcome was clinical deterioration (intensive care unit admission, invasive mechanical ventilation, or vasopressor therapy) or in-hospital death. RESULTS: In multivariable linear regression analysis adjusted for patient comorbidities, the total burden of COVID-19 pneumonia was associated with EAT volume (ß = 10.6, p = 0.005) and EAT attenuation (ß = 5.2, p = 0.004). EAT volume correlated with serum levels of lactate dehydrogenase (r = 0.361, p = 0.001) and C-reactive protein (r = 0.450, p < 0.001). Clinical deterioration or death occurred in 23 (21.1%) patients at a median of 3 days (IQR 1-13 days) following the chest CT. In multivariable logistic regression analysis, EAT volume (OR 5.1 [95% CI 1.8-14.1] per doubling p = 0.011) and EAT attenuation (OR 3.4 [95% CI 1.5-7.5] per 5 Hounsfield unit increase, p = 0.003) were independent predictors of clinical deterioration or death, as was total pneumonia burden (OR 2.5, 95% CI 1.4-4.6, p = 0.002), chronic lung disease (OR 1.3 [95% CI 1.1-1.7], p = 0.011), and history of heart failure (OR 3.5 [95% 1.1-8.2], p = 0.037). CONCLUSIONS: EAT measures quantified from chest CT are independently associated with extent of pneumonia and adverse outcomes in patients with COVID-19, lending support to their use in clinical risk stratification.

Machine learning integration of circulating and imaging biomarkers for explainable patient-specific prediction of cardiac events: A prospective study.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: We sought to assess the performance of a comprehensive machine learning (ML) risk score integrating circulating biomarkers and computed tomography (CT) measures for the long-term prediction of hard cardiac events in asymptomatic subjects. METHODS: We studied 1069 subjects (age 58.2 ± 8.2 years, 54.0% males) from the prospective EISNER trial who underwent coronary artery calcium (CAC) scoring CT, serum biomarker assessment, and long-term follow-up. Epicardial adipose tissue (EAT) was quantified from CT using fully automated deep learning software. Forty-eight serum biomarkers, both established and novel, were assayed. An ML algorithm (XGBoost) was trained using clinical risk factors, CT measures (CAC score, number of coronary lesions, aortic valve calcium score, EAT volume and attenuation), and circulating biomarkers, and validated using repeated 10-fold cross validation. RESULTS: At 14.5 ± 2.0 years, there were 50 hard cardiac events (myocardial infarction or cardiac death). The ML risk score (area under the receiver operator characteristic curve [AUC] 0.81) outperformed the CAC score (0.75) and ASCVD risk score (0.74; both p = 0.02) for the prediction of hard cardiac events. Serum biomarkers provided incremental prognostic value beyond clinical data and CT measures in the ML model (net reclassification index 0.53 [95% CI: 0.23-0.81], p < 0.0001). Among novel biomarkers, MMP-9, pentraxin 3, PIGR, and GDF-15 had highest variable importance for ML and reflect the pathways of inflammation, extracellular matrix remodeling, and fibrosis. CONCLUSIONS: In this prospective study, ML integration of novel circulating biomarkers and noninvasive imaging measures provided superior long-term risk prediction for cardiac events compared to current risk assessment tools.

Myocardial Infarction Associates With a Distinct Pericoronary Adipose Tissue Radiomic Phenotype: A Prospective Case-Control Study.

OBJECTIVES: This study sought to determine whether coronary computed tomography angiography (CCTA)-based radiomic analysis of pericoronary adipose tissue (PCAT) could distinguish patients with acute myocardial infarction (MI) from patients with stable or no coronary artery disease (CAD). BACKGROUND: Imaging of PCAT with CCTA enables detection of coronary inflammation. Radiomics involves extracting quantitative features from medical images to create big data and identify novel imaging biomarkers. METHODS: In a prospective case-control study, 60 patients with acute MI underwent CCTA within 48 h of admission, before invasive angiography. These subjects were matched to patients with stable CAD (n = 60) and controls with no CAD (n = 60) by age, sex, risk factors, medications, and CT tube voltage. PCAT was segmented around the proximal right coronary artery (RCA) in all patients and around culprit and nonculprit lesions in patients with MI. PCAT segmentations were analyzed using Radiomics Image Analysis software. RESULTS: Of 1,103 calculated radiomic parameters, 20.3% differed significantly between MI patients and controls, and 16.5% differed between patients with MI and stable CAD (critical p < 0.0006); whereas none differed between patients with stable CAD and controls. On cluster analysis, the most significant radiomic parameters were texture or geometry based. At 6 months post-MI, there was no significant change in the PCAT radiomic profile around the proximal RCA or nonculprit lesions. Using machine learning (XGBoost), a model integrating clinical features (risk factors, serum lipids, high-sensitivity C-reactive protein), PCAT attenuation, and radiomic parameters provided superior discrimination of acute MI (area under the receiver operator characteristic curve [AUC]: 0.87) compared with a model with clinical features and PCAT attenuation (AUC: 0.77; p = 0.001) or clinical features alone (AUC: 0.76; p < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Patients with acute MI have a distinct PCAT radiomic phenotype compared with patients with stable or no CAD. Using machine learning, a radiomics-based model outperforms a PCAT attenuation-based model in accurately identifying patients with MI.

Low-Attenuation Noncalcified Plaque on Coronary Computed Tomography Angiography Predicts Myocardial Infarction: Results From the Multicenter SCOT-HEART Trial (Scottish Computed Tomography of the HEART).

BACKGROUND: The future risk of myocardial infarction is commonly assessed using cardiovascular risk scores, coronary artery calcium score, or coronary artery stenosis severity. We assessed whether noncalcified low-attenuation plaque burden on coronary CT angiography (CCTA) might be a better predictor of the future risk of myocardial infarction. METHODS: In a post hoc analysis of a multicenter randomized controlled trial of CCTA in patients with stable chest pain, we investigated the association between the future risk of fatal or nonfatal myocardial infarction and low-attenuation plaque burden (% plaque to vessel volume), cardiovascular risk score, coronary artery calcium score or obstructive coronary artery stenoses. RESULTS: In 1769 patients (56% male; 58±10 years) followed up for a median 4.7 (interquartile interval, 4.0-5.7) years, low-attenuation plaque burden correlated weakly with cardiovascular risk score (r=0.34; P<0.001), strongly with coronary artery calcium score (r=0.62; P<0.001), and very strongly with the severity of luminal coronary stenosis (area stenosis, r=0.83; P<0.001). Low-attenuation plaque burden (7.5% [4.8-9.2] versus 4.1% [0-6.8]; P<0.001), coronary artery calcium score (336 [62-1064] versus 19 [0-217] Agatston units; P<0.001), and the presence of obstructive coronary artery disease (54% versus 25%; P<0.001) were all higher in the 41 patients who had fatal or nonfatal myocardial infarction. Low-attenuation plaque burden was the strongest predictor of myocardial infarction (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.60 (95% CI, 1.10-2.34) per doubling; P=0.014), irrespective of cardiovascular risk score, coronary artery calcium score, or coronary artery area stenosis. Patients with low-attenuation plaque burden greater than 4% were nearly 5 times more likely to have subsequent myocardial infarction (hazard ratio, 4.65; 95% CI, 2.06-10.5; P<0.001). CONCLUSIONS: In patients presenting with stable chest pain, low-attenuation plaque burden is the strongest predictor of fatal or nonfatal myocardial infarction. These findings challenge the current perception of the supremacy of current classical risk predictors for myocardial infarction, including stenosis severity. Registration: URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov; Unique identifier: NCT01149590.

Deep Learning-Based Quantification of Epicardial Adipose Tissue Volume and Attenuation Predicts Major Adverse Cardiovascular Events in Asymptomatic Subjects.

BACKGROUND: Epicardial adipose tissue (EAT) volume (cm3) and attenuation (Hounsfield units) may predict major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE). We aimed to evaluate the prognostic value of fully automated deep learning-based EAT volume and attenuation measurements quantified from noncontrast cardiac computed tomography. METHODS: Our study included 2068 asymptomatic subjects (56±9 years, 59% male) from the EISNER trial (Early Identification of Subclinical Atherosclerosis by Noninvasive Imaging Research) with long-term follow-up after coronary artery calcium measurement. EAT volume and mean attenuation were quantified using automated deep learning software from noncontrast cardiac computed tomography. MACE was defined as myocardial infarction, late (>180 days) revascularization, and cardiac death. EAT measures were compared to coronary artery calcium score and atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease risk score for MACE prediction. RESULTS: At 14±3 years, 223 subjects suffered MACE. Increased EAT volume and decreased EAT attenuation were both independently associated with MACE. Atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease risk score, coronary artery calcium, and EAT volume were associated with increased risk of MACE (hazard ratio [95%CI]: 1.03 [1.01-1.04]; 1.25 [1.19-1.30]; and 1.35 [1.07-1.68], P<0.01 for all) and EAT attenuation was inversely associated with MACE (hazard ratio, 0.83 [95% CI, 0.72-0.96]; P=0.01), with corresponding Harrell C statistic of 0.76. MACE risk progressively increased with EAT volume ≥113 cm3 and coronary artery calcium ≥100 AU and was highest in subjects with both (P<0.02 for all). In 1317 subjects, EAT volume was correlated with inflammatory biomarkers C-reactive protein, myeloperoxidase, and adiponectin reduction; EAT attenuation was inversely related to these biomarkers. CONCLUSIONS: Fully automated EAT volume and attenuation quantification by deep learning from noncontrast cardiac computed tomography can provide prognostic value for the asymptomatic patient, without additional imaging or physician interaction.